How Portugal approaches the match
Roberto Martínez’s side conceded only once across the group, with two clean sheets and Diogo Costa producing six saves against Colombia. The numbers back the favouritism: 1.28 average xG against 1.13 xGA, 58% possession and a 90% save percentage. Ronaldo remains the box reference with 2 goals and 1.5 xG, while Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto and Cancelo each registered an assist.
The worry is tempo. Against a compact Colombia, Portugal looked flat and risk-averse, relying on individual quality to break a low block. No fresh injuries are confirmed, with only Tomás Araújo flagged as a fitness doubt. Expect a 4-3-3 built on Vitinha and Bruno control, with Neto and Leão asked to stretch Croatia’s full-backs. Portugal must score early before Croatia can settle into their preferred slow rhythm.
How Croatia approaches the match
Zlatko Dalić’s team is a different animal: experienced, patient, comfortable in low-margin knockout football. The stats are sobering though, just 0.80 average xG and a leaky 1.26 xGA, with five goals scored and five conceded. Open-play creation is thin, so goals have arrived from Baturina, Sučić, Vlašić and Musa, often through set pieces.
Modrić remains the metronome and the dead-ball threat, with Kovačić alongside him to escape pressure. Gvardiol is expected back into the XI, with no fresh absences reported. The bench offers tournament-hardened depth, useful in a long match. Croatia’s plan is clear: keep it level, win second balls, and let Modrić’s delivery decide one moment.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
A level score brings two 15-minute periods of extra time, then penalties if needed. Here Croatia’s profile genuinely matters. Their resilience, midfield know-how and Livaković’s shootout pedigree make them dangerous in the lottery, while Modrić remains an elite penalty taker. Portugal counter with deeper squad quality and Diogo Costa’s form, but their slow tempo could play into Croatia’s hands the longer it stays goalless.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
The likely script: Portugal dominate territory, Croatia sit compact and chase set pieces. Normalised odds give roughly Portugal 53%, draw 27%, Croatia 20%. I lean toward a tight Portuguese win, with a probable 1-0 scoreline and a real chance, around 27%, that this drifts to extra time.
My main pick is Portugal to win at 1.79, with Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 a sensible alternative given two clean sheets and Croatia’s modest 0.80 xG. For the advancing market, I trust Portugal’s defensive ceiling and finishing edge to see them through, though Croatia’s knockout instincts keep the price from being a formality.
Final call: Portugal advance, edging a low-scoring contest decided by one clinical moment.