How Germany approaches the match
I still see Germany as one of the most dangerous attacking teams in this section of the bracket. They scored 10 goals in the group, average 2.2 xG, hold 67% possession, take 17.7 shots per game and create 14.3 chances. Those numbers explain the short 1.29. Nagelsmann’s team wants to pin the opponent back, stretch the pitch and attack between the lines through Wirtz, Musiala, Sané and Havertz, with Kimmich feeding the game and full-backs giving width.
But there is a warning light. Germany conceded in all three group matches, and the Ecuador defeat mattered psychologically even if the table barely moved. That game showed the weakness clearly. When the first counter-press fails, space appears quickly and turnovers become dangerous. Schlotterbeck is out, Brown was managing a muscular issue, and that slightly reduces comfort at the back. Still, Germany should own territory, win corners, and force Paraguay into long defensive sequences. Undav, already on 3 goals, is a serious card whether he starts or comes on.
How Paraguay approaches the match
Paraguay have taken a very different road. Their group output was modest, 2 goals scored and 4 conceded, with only 0.5 xG per game, 7.3 shots and 38% possession. Yet Alfaro has built a side that is hard to move once it settles into a low block. The 0-0 against Australia and 1-0 against Türkiye were the kind of results this team understands. After the 4-1 loss to the USA, the reaction was disciplined and emotionally important.
The problem for betting on an upset is obvious. Paraguay do not create much, and their forwards can become isolated. Enciso is the main carrier, Almirón returns from suspension and gives transition speed, while Gustavo Gómez and Cubas lead the resistance centrally. Diego Gómez is suspended, Alderete is a fitness concern, and that matters against a side that attacks the box repeatedly. If Paraguay are to stretch this game, they need almost flawless concentration and a few clean counters rather than just brave defending.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
If the score is level after 90 minutes, we get two extra periods of 15 minutes. If there is still no winner, the tie goes to penalties. In that scenario, depth becomes crucial. Germany look better equipped for a long night because their bench can change the rhythm of the attack, and they have more players comfortable in high-possession knockout football. Paraguay may welcome a slower, broken game, but soaking up pressure for 120 minutes is a punishing task. Penalties would increase chaos, though Germany’s broader pool of likely takers still appeals more to me.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
I expect a familiar picture, Germany with the ball, Paraguay low and compact, waiting for Enciso or Almirón to break into the space behind the full-backs. The market-implied balance, roughly 74% Germany, 18% draw and 9% Paraguay, feels fair. My main bet is Germany to win at 1.29, and for a better price I like Both teams to score, No at 1.66. Paraguay’s attacking numbers are simply too thin. Under 2.5 at 2.20 is the value swing if you believe Paraguay can slow the game for long spells.
My probable score after 90 minutes is 2-0 to Germany. I give extra time a live but limited chance because Paraguay are built to frustrate, yet Germany’s attacking volume should eventually crack the block. My final prediction is Germany to advance, and I prefer the regular-time win because the gap in chance creation, possession and squad quality is too large to ignore.