How Côte d'Ivoire approaches the match
Emerse Faé's side scored 4 and conceded 2 in the group, posting two clean sheets in three games. That defensive structure is their backbone. Ousmane Diomande and Odilon Kossounou are athletic centre-backs, and they will need every inch of that athleticism against Haaland. With around 1.1 xG per game, 11 shots and 58% possession, this is not a volume machine, but it is varied: Pépé is in scoring form, while Yan Diomande, Amad Diallo and Bonny offer pace in transition.
The doubt is Wilfried Singo, who missed the Curaçao match with a hamstring issue. The plan is obvious: stay compact, deny service into Haaland, and break with width. Defending only inside their own box for long stretches would be suicidal.
How Norway approaches the match
Norway scored 8 but conceded 7, and that imbalance defines them. Haaland is the reference point with 4 goals in two appearances, Ødegaard the conductor with two assists, and Sørloth, Nusa and Bobb add alternative routes. With 1.8 xG per game and 2.7 goals scored, the ceiling is high.
The defence is the soft spot: they have conceded in every World Cup match and managed just one clean sheet in their last ten. Julian Ryerson is a doubt with a thigh problem, which could force a right-back reshuffle, exactly the channel where Côte d'Ivoire's runners thrive. The bench, with Berge, Berg and Ajer, gives Solbakken depth for a long night.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
A draw sends us into two periods of 15 minutes, and if still level, a penalty shootout. In extra time, squad depth and physical readiness decide everything. Norway's rotation against France means their starters arrive fresher, a genuine advantage in minute 100. Côte d'Ivoire's athletic legs and Faé's praised bench impact balance that out.
From the spot, Norway's Ødegaard and Sørloth carry calm, while Nyland's reliability is questionable given those defensive numbers. Côte d'Ivoire would trust Fofana and Pépé's nerve.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
I expect a balanced first half, Norway with more penalty-box threat, Côte d'Ivoire dangerous on the counter. Implied probabilities sit around Norway 46%, draw 28%, Côte d'Ivoire 26%, and Dimers agrees with Norway near 47.8%.
The most logical reading is goals at both ends. Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.66 is my main pick, because Norway leak chances every game while Côte d'Ivoire have scored in each group match. As an alternative, Norway win at 2.04 carries clear value given the attacking gap. My probable score is 1-2 Norway, with a real chance of extra time around 28%.
The team I back to advance is Norway, but I treat their straight win as medium-high risk rather than a formality.
I lean BTTS Yes and Norway to go through.