How Colombia approaches the match
Néstor Lorenzo's side built their group campaign on control: 70% possession, 20.3 shots and 12.7 chances created per game, against just one goal conceded and two clean sheets. The numbers scream dominance, with 1.2 xG per match. Yet Lorenzo himself flagged the obvious flaw after the Portugal stalemate: finishing efficiency. Colombia create plenty but waste too much.
The attack flows through Luis Díaz on the left and the forward surges of Daniel Muñoz, who already has 2 goals from wide-right zones. Jhon Arias leads the team in xG at 0.7, while James Rodríguez orchestrates. Defensively, Davinson Sánchez and Jefferson Lerma protect transitions superbly. With no confirmed absences and only Luis Suárez doubtful, Colombia look fresh. Expect a 4-2-3-1 with relentless wide overloads and pressure on second balls.
How Ghana approaches the match
Carlos Queiroz has moulded Ghana into a disciplined, deep-lying counter unit. Their identity was clear in the 0-0 against England, where Benjamin Asare faced 19 shots and stood tall. But the attacking output is alarming: 0.6 xG, 5.3 shots and just 3.7 chances created per game.
Caleb Yirenkyi is the leading scorer, Antoine Semenyo offers pace despite a minor ankle knock that should clear, and set pieces matter hugely given the lack of open-play creation, as the Nuamah-to-Luckassen goal against Croatia proved. Thomas Partey anchors midfield. Ghana have squad depth for a long night, but their plan depends on keeping the score level and pouncing on moments.
What happens if the match is tied after 90 minutes
A draw sends us into two 15-minute periods of extra time, and then penalties if needed. Here Ghana's profile becomes genuinely dangerous. A side built to absorb pressure and survive thrives in tight finishes, and Asare is exactly the goalkeeper you want in a shootout. Colombia carry more quality across the bench and better penalty takers in Díaz and James, but their habit of wasting chances raises the risk of a frustrating stalemate. Physical readiness favours Colombia, yet Ghana's compact structure can drag any opponent into the lottery.
Match prediction and the team that will advance
I expect Colombia to monopolise the ball while Ghana sit in a 4-5-1 and counter sparingly. The implied probabilities land around Colombia 62%, draw 24%, Ghana 14%, with Dimers leaning even harder toward Colombia at 66.5%.
My main pick is Colombia to win at 1.51, with genuine value also sitting in Both Teams To Score No at 1.61 given Ghana's threadbare attack and Colombia's clean-sheet base. Under 2.5 at 1.62 fits the same low-scoring logic. My probable scoreline is 1-0 Colombia. I see roughly a one-in-four chance of extra time, but quality should tell. Colombia advance.